Almonds The
crop is moving along fine with an potential 1.45 billion
pound crop. Shipments on new crop are very fast and
at an all time high in volume. Prices are stable to lower than
last year but pre holiday the prices remain firm.
Acreage has risen
from 550,000 acres in 2002 planted to 660,000 acres
estimated this year. That has given us this huge, record
crop.
With
large crops come small sizes. The tree has so many nutlet on
it that all the nuts are smaller because tey compete for
nutrition.
Expectation is that a lot of almonds will ship
offshore because of the weak dollar. The prices
all year have risen because the world pricing is 150%
higher for the dollar vs the
Euro. World demand has
risen.
Nutrition is also
a big item. Increased
use will come from using almonds for health reasons. The food industry adds almonds
to a lot of products because of the reasonable cost,
and the nutritional value. Other reasons are the continuing low carbohydrate
craze and a quest for better health. Almonds are nutritionally very
good for you. it will be interesting to see how the
new "organic craze" changes the almond industry
which relies heavily on fungicides, fertilizers, and
pesticides.
Apricots
Turkey
has an average crop and prices are trending to normal and
stable so far. They are about the same as last year.
Prices
have returned to historical normal patterns since the
August of 1999 earthquake. The trees are starting to
bloom and it is too early to for tell the crop this
year.
The
weak dollar has pressured the price for this import.
Brazil
Nuts
New
crop looks better than it has for years and the pricing
is stable from the highs of 2004, 2005, and 2006. In
2007 prices started to reflect the weak dollar and
rose. Explanation
for the high prices has been that fewer natives ventured
into the deep jungle to gather the crop. Obviously
the high price has dampered demand, and the prices are
reduced
as the demand dwindles. This is a perfect example of
a free market. For now the price and
availability seem to have stabilized.
A
lot of people are looking for Brazil nuts shipped from
Manuas, Brazil. The Brazilian nuts have shown
in antioxidant studies that selenium is extremely high
in these nuts. Peru and Bolivia are not as high
in selenium. because the nut can only grow wild in tropical
jungles, and because forests are being decimated - this
nut will continue to get scarcer and scarcer and the
price will rise accordingly.
Cashews
The
market hit a 30 year low in early 2002. Prices remained
steady in 2003 through 2006. In 2007 they start
to climb and in 2008 they had advanced about 50% due to
the weakened dollar. Prices for cashews have remained
high. Forward quotes for fall are steady.
Future markets
are slightly lower after the first of next year, 2009.
We expect
a tremendous cashew year!
Africa
also ships their extra surplus to China and India for
shelling. We see at some time a significant price
break in cashew markets due to the dollar currency changing
worldwide and diminishing demand after the new year.
That is usually a traditional time for the market to
dip.
Filberts
Oregon
crop is normal this year. Oregon sells
about 15% of the world market. In February
2004 the crop froze out in Turkey. That caused the
filbert market
to double in price. In 2006 Oregon had a smaller crop which sold out. In 2007
the price had soared to double the 2006 prices. It is still fairly high.
This 2007 crop in Turkey was large and abundant,
but the prices were still a bit high. That is
because the government controls the crop with a cooperative and
creates high prices to appease the grower farmers. In
return, Turkish farmers support the governement. Abundant quantities
of Turkish filberts arrived arrived in 2008 for resale.
Price kept high.
They are now moving down in very small
increments as the 2008 crop comes in.
As the almonds prices fall, the filbert prices will follow. That
is a historical pattern.
80% of the filbert crop is grown and exported from Turkey
and Greece. Quite a bit of the crop goes to Europe and
especially to Germany to be used in their confectionery
industry. Filberts have always been priced below almonds.
Now that they are higher than almonds. Watch this
market break as they follow their historical pattern.
Fiskobrik
is their filbert co-op in Turkey. It is very good at
hiding the size of the Turkish crop and getting a very
high price for the growers. We have no idea of the
2008
carryover crop size but I think it is fairly large.
The filbert crop is almost in and the prices are stable
to lower than last year.
Hazelnuts
Oregon
is expecting a normal crop and the weather has been
good. New crop will arrive in October. The growing season
has been wonderful so far....
Pecans
After
a downward move in January of 2002 reaching record low
prices, the pecan prices firmed up considerably in 2003
and kept the high ground in 2004 and 2005.
While priced moderated
a bit in 2006, they were still high by historical standards.
In the 2007 season, we saw the national warehouse
receipts for stored pecans were high with about half
of last years crop still unsold. In 2008 the pric
dipped early in the year and strengthened shortly
thereafter.
The new crop appears
plentiful and normal in size.
Expect
high pricing in this crop as we get close to
the holidays. Prices firm for the holiday season. A lot
depends on the upcoming hurricane season in October
and November. Damage in Louisanna and the gulf states
will drive prices.....
User volume is down. T high pricing should
reduce the use in 2008-2009 if history repeats itself.
Pecan
crop prices follow the almond and walnut crop prices
because the pecan and the walnut compete for bakery
ingredient sales. When pecans are high, the walnut
is easily used as a substitute. The reverse is
also true. Low price pecans will replace high
priced walnuts.
Prices for new
crop pecans are traditionally lower during the early
spring and are firm in later summer months. This year
it will be similar. Due to the giant almond crop and
the higher price pecans, they pecan prices will stay
high. Only as the almond crop comes in, will
pecans reduce in price. That will
happen next April and June when almond growers see
buds on their trees and the
government statistical reports for their new crops.
Pistachios
The
market for new crop is stable and higher.
The 2001-2002 crop was gigantic. So was the 2003
crop. The crop experienced a much smaller yield in 2004.
In 2005 and 2006 the prices had climbed considerably
as supplies tightened, The 2007 crop is large.
In 2008 the crop is coming in way short and prices are moving up
fast.
Iranian
kernels have been coming into the East Coast in small
numbers. This has changed the market a little. This
will put a slight pressure on the U.S. crop because
a 28 year embargo ended eight years ago.
Raisins
The
raisin crop is coming in. Prices are creeping
upward due to higher farm costs and a lot of labor to
process the crop. Pressure from imports usually affects
the price downward. This is normal for most raisin crops
but not yet this year. We have seen a small price
increase as the price paid to growers has moved up in
the field this fall. Zante currants are still high priced
but in very light demand. Golden raisins have been high
in cost for several years. The wine industry continues
to consume the grape market with ever-increasing crop
size and people must be drinking a lot more wine because
of the high raisin demand.
Usually
Mexican imports are the second biggest problem for the
American raisin industry. Mexican product is now
arriving along with Chile Sultanas. Imported raisins
continue to flood into the USA this season into mature
markets. A large quantity come from Chili and South
America.
Sunflower Kernels
In
2004 there was a total crop failure. In
2005 there was a shortage of soybeans. The sunflower
crop froze out and mildewed. The United States crop
was a 100% loss. The sunflower price was high and we
imported from China. Prices had doubled since 2004-5.
In 2006 the market was back to a normal level. Prices
never returned to nnormal. The 2007
crop was short again. It was a very small crop. Much of the acreage has replanted
for the ethanol market. Some was repalced with soybean
crop. There are also large restaurant
chains converting over to the sunflower oil as they
remove the transfat oils in their restaurants. That
alone will consume most of the United States crop.
2008 is another scarce year and prices have been tripled
and above for the past five years.
What has affected this crop price beyond the grower
is the high processing cost for the roasting plants.
Fuel and labor cost are much higher and this requires
higher prices to recover the crop's cost. We have
seen a definite upward trend in prices all summer and
shortages.
.Walnuts
Many
walnut farmers have pulled out their mature trees and
replanted in almonds. Walnut prices doubled from the
2007 crop. They are very scarce and there are many
imported walnuts being used.
This is a very mature market
- being
priced a little high because of the higher pecan markets. Look for this market to show weakness
as almond prices come down. There may be less lowering
of prices for this crop due to demand and higher fuel costs. it
is a guessing game.
There
is pressure from Chinese walnut imports and other growing
areas like France and South America.
We
were offered Romanian and Moldavian walnuts, which is
ongoing the last few years. We have imported
French walnuts and Chinese walnuts in earlier years.
See the California crop reports at The University of California -
Davis Campus Agricultural Report |
