October 2007
Crop Report

Here are the world nut crop statistics

crop statistics

This is the time of the year when all the tree crops are harvesting in orchards worldwide The weather has been better this year so far. This has affected the crops - some benefiting and some becoming lower in yield

Prices reflect the size of the crop. Some of this is simply cyclical. Some is weather related. Some prices are affected by the economy and the way the dollar is trading in the world. And some of this pricing is the shrinking size of the firms that buy the crops and use them. There is also the rising fuel costs to farmers that has increased the price of the crops. Less players and bigger buyers make the markets change. Small businesses are not able to buy $15,000 of almonds from the largest almond shellers. As the buyers pool/market shrinks, and as the crops get more plentiful - the sellers start to change their marketing to accommodate the smaller users and the minimum purchase shrinks. That is the way this marketplace is now developing - where the bigger players get the best opportunities but smaller players can still buy.

All the crops are part of a world commodity market. We raise pecans and so does Mexico. We grow hazelnuts and so do Turkey, Italy, and Romania. A large filbert crop is coming on in Georgia, USSR and the countries surrounding the Black sea. Turkey used to dominate this market. The dollar is still a weak currency in the world economy. The Euro is strong and affects us. Europe sees U.S. crops as very cheap in price. We export a lot of our nut crops.

There is a great effort to import to the United States.  This has challenged our domestic growers who face rising fuel costs, labor costs, high taxes, more government rules, less ability to borrow money, increased fertilizer and seed/orchard costs, and a lowering of prices by many foreign counties as they sell their subsidized crops.

The crop is moving along fine with an potential 1.3 billion pound crop. Shipments on new crop are very fast and at an all time high in volume. Prices are lower than last year but are firm and then soft. Acreage has risen from 550,000 acres in 2002 planted to 640,000 acres estimated this year. That has given us this huge, record crop.

Expectation is that a lot of increased users will use almonds for health reasons. The food industry adds almonds to a lot of products because of the continuing low carbohydrate craze and better health. Almonds are nutritionally very good for you. it will be interesting to see how the new "organic craze" changes the almond industry which relies heavily on fungicides, fertilizers, and pesticides.

Apricots

Turkey has a large crop and prices are trending to normal and stable so far from last year.        

Prices have returned to historical normal patterns since the August of 1999 earthquake. The trees are starting to bloom and it is too early to for tell the crop this year.

New crop looks better than it has for years and the pricing is stable from the highs of 2004 and 2005. In 2006 it had returned to a more normal level. The explanation for the high prices has been that fewer natives ventured into the deep jungle to gather the crop. Obviously the high price dampered demand and the prices reduced as the demand dwindled. This is a perfect example of a free market.

A lot of people are looking for Brazil nuts shipped from Manuas, Brazil.  The Brazilian nuts have shown in antioxidant studies that selenium is extremely high in these nuts.  Peru and Bolivia are not as high in selenium. because the nut can only grow wild in tropical jungles, and because forests are being decimated - this nut will continue to get scarcer and scarcer and the price will rise accordingly.

The market hit a 30 year low in early 2002. Prices remained steady in 2003 through 2006 and prices have remained low and stable for the longest we can remember.   Forward quotes for fall are steady but the future markets are slightly higher. This is probably just because of the 2007 holiday season raising demand.   Indonesian and Vietnamese cashews of all sizes are available in ever-increasing quantities.   We expect a tremendous year!

Africa also ships their extra surplus to China and India for shelling.  We see at some time a significant price break in cashew markets due to the dollar currency changing worldwide and diminishing demand after the new year.  That is usually a traditional time for the market to dip.

Oregon crop is normal this year and sold out, per usual. What remains is in the hands of resellers. Oregon supplies only about 10% of the world market.   In 2006 they had a smaller crop which sold out. In February 2004 the crop froze out in Turkey. That caused the market to double in price and in 2007 it is still fairly high.

This 2007 crop in Turkey appears to be large and abundant but the prices were still a bit high. Abundant quantities of Turkish filberts are arriving now for resale and the price keeps moving down in very small increments. As the almonds fall, the filberts will follow. That is a historical pattern

90% of the filbert crop is grown and exported from Turkey and Greece. Quite a bit of the crop goes to Europe and especially to Germany to be used in their confectionery industry. Filberts have always been priced below almonds and now that they are higher than almonds, watch this market break as they follow their historical pattern.

 Fiskobrik is their filbert co-op in Turkey. It is very good at hiding the size of the Turkish crop and getting a very high price for the growers. We have no idea of the 2006 carryover crop size but I think it is fairly large. The filbert crop is almost in and the prices are stable to lower than last year. 

Oregon is expecting a normal crop and the weather has been good. New crop will arrive in october. The growing season has been wonderful so far....

After a downward move in January of 2002 reaching record low prices, the pecan prices firmed up considerably in 2003 and kept the high ground in 2005. While priced moderated a bit in 2006, they were still high by historical standards.

In the upcoming 2007 season, we see the national warehouse receipts for stored pecans are high with about half of last years crop still unsold. The new crop appears plentiful and normal in size.

Expect fair to lower pricing in this crop as we get close to the holidays. It firms for the holiday season. A lot depends on the upcoming hurricane season in October and November. Damage in Louisanna and the gulf states will drive prices. .

User volume is down and the pricing should ease this 2007 if history repeats itself. 

Pecan crop prices follow the almond and walnut crop prices because the pecan and the walnut compete for bakery ingredient sales.  When pecans are high, the walnut is easily used as a substitute.   Prices for new crop pecans are traditionally lower during the early spring and are firm in later summer months. This year it will be reversed. Due to the giant almond crop and the higher price pecans, they pecan prices will go down only as the almond crop reduces in price. That will happen in April and June when almond growers see the government statistical reports for their crops.

Pistachios

The market for new crop is stable and a bit higher.  The 2001-2002 crop was gigantic.  So was the 2003 crop. The crop experienced a much smaller yield in 2004. In 2005 and 2006 the prices had climbed considerably as supplies tightened, The 2007 crop is large but watch out for smaller sizes. Prices are expected to move downward and you should see pistachios promoted on sale in the grocery stores this winter.

Iranian kernels have been coming into the East Coast in small numbers. This has changed the market a little. This will put a slight pressure on the U.S. crop because a 26 year embargo ended seven years ago.  

The raisin crop is coming in.   Prices are creeping upward due to higher farm costs and a lot of labor to process the crop. Pressure from imports usually affects the price downward. This is normal for most raisin crops but not yet this year.  We have seen a small price increase as the price paid to growers has moved up in the field this fall. Zante currants are still high priced but in very light demand. Golden raisins have been high in cost for several years. The wine industry continues to consume the grape market with ever-increasing crop size and people must be drinking a lot more wine because of the high raisin demand.     

Usually Mexican imports are the second biggest problem for the American raisin industry.  Mexican product is now arriving along with Chile Sultanas.  Imported raisins continue to flood into the USA this season into mature markets. A large quantity come from Chili and South America.

Sunflower Kernels

In 2005 there was a shortage of soybeans. The sunflower crop froze out and mildewed. The United States crop was a 100% loss. The sunflower price was high and we imported from China. Prices had doubled due to a total United States crop failure in the fall of 2004.

In 2006 the market was back to a normal level. The 2007 crop is about a month from harvest and this will be a very small crop. Much of the acreage has replanted for the ethanol market. There are also large restaurant chains converting over to the sunflower oil as they remove the transfat oils in their restaurants. That alone would consume most of the United States crop.

What has affected this crop price beyond the grower is the high processing cost for the roasting plants. Fuel and labor cost are much higher and this requires higher prices to recover the crop's cost.  We have seen a definite upward trend in prices all summer.

.Walnuts

Many walnut farmers have pulled out their mature trees and replanted in almonds. This is a very mature market being priced a little high because of the higher almond and pecan markets. Look for this market to show weakness as almond prices come down. There may be no lowering of this crop due to demand and higher fuel costs. it is a guessing game.

There is pressure from Chinese walnut imports and other growing areas like France and South America.

We were offered Romanian and Moldavian walnuts, which is ongoing the last few years.   We have imported French walnuts and Chinese walnuts in earlier years. 

See the California crop reports at

     The University of California -
Davis Campus Agricultural Report